Iphepha elilodwa lwakamuva, elivela ku- JAMA ngoFebhuwari 2014, liphakamisa ukuncipha kancane kwezinga lokukhuluphala phakathi kwezingane ezinkathini eyodwa yobudala (abaneminyaka engama-2 kuya ku-5), ukuveza izihloko ezitshela ukuthi izingane zokukhuluphala ngokweqile "zanciphisa." Enye, eyanyatheliswa kulayini ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli ku- JAMA Pediatrics kubike ukuthi akukhona nje kuphela ukuthi izinga lokukhuluphala ngokwezingane lahluleka ukwehla, kodwa ukuthi ukukhuluphala ngokweqile ezinganeni kwakukhuphuka ngokweqile.
I-gyrations enjalo yasendle ekubikeni ngale nkathi encane ithi okuthile mayelana nokukhokhiswa ngokomzwelo nokuhlukumeza ubuhlobo bethu nalesi sihloko. Bacela futhi umbuzo: kuphi thina manje, ngempela?
Isihloko sokuqala salezi zihloko sanyatheliswa ngesihloko esibonakala sengathi sihlosiwe, "Ukukhula kobuntwana kanye nokukhuluphala kwabantu abadala e-United States, ngo-2011-2012." Ukupakishwa ngaphakathi kwedatha yedatha ephathelene nazo zonke izinkathi kwakuyizinga eliphansi ekukhusheni izinga lokukhuluphala izingane ezineminyaka engu-2 kuya kweyesi-5 Ngandlela-thile, lokhu kwanikeza isihloko esilandelayo eNew York Times: "Izinga lokukhuluphala kwabantwana abancane liphinda lithinte 43% eminyakeni eyishumi." Uma lokho kwakunembile, kuyoba yimbangela yokugubha.
Isiqalo sokuqala esiyiqiniso, noma kunjalo, isiphetho sokutadisha kumagama abhali bomlomo: " Konke, akuzange kube nezinguquko eziphawulekayo ekukhusheni ngokweqile ebusheni noma kubantu abadala phakathi kuka 2003-2004 no-2011-2012 ."
Lokho abaphenyi abakusho ngempela, idatha yokulandelela ngokuhamba kweminyaka eyishumi, akuyona inguquko ejwayelekile esilinganisweni sabantu sokukhuluphala. Esikhathini sampula yocwaningo labantu abangaphezu kwezinkulungwane eziyisishiyagalolunye, abamele inani labantu abayizigidi ezingu-300, izinga lokukhuluphala ngokweqile lizinzile emaqenjini amaningi, kuhlanganise nezinsana ezingaphansi kweminyaka emibili.
Amanani aphakama kakhulu kwabesifazane abaneminyaka engaphezu kwengu-60, futhi wehla kakhulu-nakuba kungenjalo (p = 0.03) - kubantwana abaphakathi kweminyaka emibili no-5.
Ngakho-ke, lokho kwakungumlando owawubhidliza inja ngasekupheleni kukaFebruwari, okwaveza umkhukula wezinhloko ze-hyperbolic: ezinganeni ezingu-871 ezineminyaka ephakathi kweminyaka emibili no-5, ukukhulelwa ngokweqile kunqamule ngenkathi ihlala iqinile noma iphakama kuzo zonke ezinye izigaba, kuhlanganise nezingane kusemncane.
Ukuncipha kwama-43% kwakungeyona iphesenti eliphelele; kodwa amaphesenti aphansi. Ukuze uthole isibambo kulokho, cabanga inani labantwana abangu-100, abaneminyaka engu-2 ukuya ku-5; futhi ucabange ukuthi amashumi angu-60 ayenamandla kakhulu. Qhathanisa leli qembu kwelinye iqembu eminyakeni efanayo eminyakeni eyishumi kamuva lapho izingane ezingu-17 kuphela eziphelile. Umehluko omkhulu ekukhusheni ngokweqile lapha kuzoba ngu-43%.
Manje, ake ucabange ukuthi eqenjini lokuqala eminyakeni eyishumi eyedlule, cishe izingane ezingu-15 zazikhuluphele; futhi okwamanje, eqenjini elilinganayo, cishe izingane ezingu-9 zikhuluphele. Ukunciphisa ngokuphelele ukukhula ngokweqile kubonakala ku-6% kuphela (okungukuthi, 15% -9%). Kodwa kuthiwani ngokunciphisa kokunciphisa ukukhuluphala? Lokho kungaba ngu-40%. I-formula yayo [[15% -9%) / 15%] = 40%. Ukuncipha kwe-6% kuyi-40% yenombolo eyisisekelo. Yilokho umehluko phakathi kwamaphesenti aphelele futhi ahlobene.
Amaphesenti angapheli ayaphuma ku-100, yilokho okuyiningi lethu elilindele. Amaphesenti ahlobene angaphandle kwenombolo yokuqala, noma yikuphi okwenzekayo. Ngezinga elilinganiselwe, ukwehla okuvela kubantu ababili kuya kwekhulu kunabantu abane-X kuya ku-1 ngamakhulu ayi-X akuyona i-1% - kungu-50%. Lokhu kuzobe kuyiqiniso uma ukudonsa kuvela ku-2 kuya kwezigidi kuya kwezingu-1 kwezigidi. Amaphesenti ahlobene nawo avame ukubikwa ezincwadini zezokwelapha, futhi avame ukubikwa emaphephandabeni athandwayo, ngenxa yezizathu ezicacile kunazo zonke: bavame ukuzwakala konke okuphawulekayo kunamanani ambalwa, amanani aphelele.
Yiziphi izinombolo zangempela, eziphelele kulokhu?
Ukukhula ngokweqile emkhakheni wezinsuku ezimbili kuya kwezingu-5 wehla kusuka ku-13.9% ukuya ku-8.4%, umehluko omkhulu ka-5.5%. Ngithemba ukuthi ungabona ukuthi ushintsho olunjani lwenza izinhloko. Isimemezelo sokuthi "izinga lokukhuluphala ngokweqile aliguquki kule minyaka eyishumi eyedlule, kanti ukukhuphuka okunye kubonakele, kanti ukwehla okungakhuthaza cishe okungama-5.5% kubantwana ababili kuya ku-5" kunembile, futhi kuthiwa njengamanzi ashubile njengamanzi okudla.
Ucwaningo lwamuva luphakamisa ukukhathazeka ukuthi ngisho nalezi zindaba ezinhle zingase zingathembeki ngokuphelele. Uma izinga lokukhuluphala ngokweqile likhuphuka kanzima ezinganeni njengoba sekubikwa ukuthi zenzelwa abantu abadala, kungenzeka ukuthi asisasisiza ukuba siqonde ububanzi besifo sengculaza ukubuza ukuthi bangaki abantwana abakhuluphele ngokweqile noma abakhuluphele kakhulu. Kungase kudingeke siqale ukubuza: ukuthi ukwedlula ngokweqile noma okukhuluphele kangakanani izingane ezithintekile? Idatha yokuthambekela ibonisa: nakakhulu kakhulu.
Yiqiniso, ukunakekelwa okuningi kuye kwaba yinkinga yokukhuluphala kwengane eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, kufaka phakathi imizamo yesignesha ye-First Lady. Kunezinye izinkomba zangempela zentuthuko.
Kodwa umbuzo ekuqaleni kwakuyi: kuphi thina manje? Impendulo yilezi: ngesithembiso sokuphumelela kweqiniso kusekude kakhulu, futhi amamayela ahambe ngaphambi kokuba silale!