Kusho ukuthini "okubalulekile"? Esivivinyo somtholampilo sokuphepha kwemithi nokusebenza, ukuthola ukuthi idatha ephumela (ulwazi) "ibonakala ngokuphawulekayo" yindlela yesayensi yokuthi umphumela wawungeke kwenzeke ukuthi kwenzeke ngengozi. Ngakho-ke, umphumela kungenzeka ngenxa yemiphumela yomuthi owafundwa.
Ukuqonda ama-P-Amanani
Yiqiniso, ukufika kulesi siphetho akulula njengokuzwakalayo.
Abacwaningi bavame ukusebenzisa indlela eyaziwa futhi enokwethenjelwa yokwenza izibalo ukuze bahlole futhi bahlole imiphumela ekutadisheni ukutadisha. Labizwa ngokuthi "i-p-value" futhi lilinganisa amathuba okuthi imiphumela yocwaningo yenzeke ngengozi.
I-p-value inikeza iphesenti laleyo nzuzo, ngokususelwa ekuhlolweni kwezibalo zomphumela wokutadisha. Ngakho-ke, uma i-p-value ingu-0.01, kunamathuba angu-1% okuthi umphumela ube ngenxa yengozi futhi ingu-99% ithuba lokuthi akusilo-lokho, kunalokho, kungenxa yemiphumela yomuthi.
Ukunqunywa okuvame kakhulu kwamanani we-p kungu-0.05 - okungukuthi, uma i-p-value ingu-0.06, ngakho kubhekwe njengento engabonakali . Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uma i-p-value ingu-0.04, khona-ke umphumela ubaluleke kakhulu.
Iyini "i-Hypothesis" engekho?
Ungazi ukuthi igama elithi "null" lihlotshaniswa ne "zero." Kulolu hlobo lwesilinganiso samanani, abacwaningi baqala ngokucabanga ukuthi umehluko ophakathi phakathi, ngokwesibonelo, imithi entsha kanye nomdala.
Lokhu kungase kubonakale kungaqondakali kusukela befuna ukuthola ukuthi lowo omusha ungcono kunomdala. Kodwa isebenza. Nansi indlela:
Ake sithi isifundo senzelwe ukuthi sibone ukuthi imithi emisha ingcono yini kunomdala. I-hypothesis engenalutho ichazwa ngokuthi, "Akukho umehluko emphumela (umphumela wesiguli) emkhatsini wemithi emisha X kanye nemithi ekhulile Y." I-p-value ka-0.04 ibuye ihumushe ku: Kususelwa kwidatha yokutadisha, kunethuba eli-4% lokuthi ayikho umehluko phakathi kwemithi emibili.
Yiqiniso, lokhu kusho ukuthi kunamathuba angu-96% wokuthi kukhona umehluko phakathi kwabo.
Kusho ukuthini "okuphawulekayo"? Isibonelo Sokuphila Kwangempela
Ukuze usebenzise isibonelo sangempela, ake sibheke isifundo se-REGARD ngabantu abane- multiple sclerosis (MS). Lolu cwaningo lwaqhathanisa i- Copaxone yemithi kuRebif .
Omunye umphumela (umphumela) owawufundwa kwakuyisikhathi esadlula ngaphambi kokuba i-MS yokuqala yeziguli ibuyele emuva ngemva kwamasonto angu-96 okuba yimithi. (Isikhathi sokucwaninga ngalokhu "yisikhathi sokuphindaphinda kokuqala.") Inani le-p lale mifushane laliyi-p = 0.64, okusho ukuthi, ngoba inani le-p laliphakeme kune-0.05, kwakungekho umehluko ophawulekayo phakathi kwezikhathi kuze kube ukuphindaphinda kokuqala kweziguli kunoma yimiphi imithi. Echazwe ngokuhlukile, kube nethuba elingama-64% lokuthi kwakungekho umehluko obala kakhulu.
Kodwa-ke, omunye umphumela owawufundwa kwaba inani lezilonda ezisebenzayo ezabonakala emikhankasweni ye-MRI yamaqembu amabili. Kwabe sekuthi abahlanganyeli bokutadisha baphathwe noRebif babephakathi kwama-0.24 ama-MS izilonda ngokuskena, kanti labo abathatha i-Copaxone banesisindo esingu-0.41 izilonda nge-scan. Kulolu cala, p = 0.0002, okusho ukuthi lokhu kwakungokutholwa okubalulekile.
Yini "Okuphawulekayo" Eyishoyo Kuzogula Ngamanye Nabo Odokotela Babo?
Kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi "okubalulekayo" akusho ukuthi into ethile emtholampilo ibalulekile noma inenjongo kubantu ngabanye.
Isibonelo, umehluko ezinombhalweni ze-MS izilonda ezisebenzayo esifundweni esixoxwe ngenhla sincane, yize kubalulekile kakhulu. Ngakho cishe ngeke kube isizathu esiyinhloko udokotela ukhetha omunye wemithi phezu komunye. Udokotela angase anikeze ezinye izici isisindo esengeziwe kwisinqumo sokwelashwa. Isibonelo, imithwalo yemiphumela yemithi, izindleko, nomjovo.
Izinto Okumele Uzikhumbule Lapho Ubuka Umbiko Wokutadisha Kwemitholampilo
Njengoba ungase usolise, kunezinye izici eziningi (isibonelo, bangaki abahlanganyeli abafundwayo noma ukuthi imiphumela ilinganiselwa kanjani) engathonya imiphumela yokugcina ye-p-value yemiphumela yokuhlolwa kliniki.
Noma kunjalo, ukwazi ukuthi ama-p-values asho ukuthini ukuqonda lokho ulwazi oluvela ekutadisheni kliniki kusho abacwaningi, odokotela, neziguli.
Funda okungenani i-abstract (isifinyeto esifushane) sesifundo. Ingahlinzeka ngeminye imininingwane mayelana nemithi kunokuba ungathola kusuka kumgqa owodwa womugqa kumkhakha wokumaketha noma isihloko sencwajana.
Umthombo:
Mikol DD, Barkhof F, Chang P, Coyle PK, Jeffery DR, Schwid SR, Stubinski B, Uitdehaag BM; QAPHELA Iqembu Lokufunda. Ukuqhathaniswa kwe-interferon beta-1a ne-glatiramer acetate ezigulini ezine-multiple sclerosis (i-REbif vs Glatiramer Acetate ekubuyiseni kabusha isifo se-MS] [UKUBHALISA]: isilingo esinama-multiticentre, randomized, parallel, evulekile. I-Lancet Neurol. 2008 Oct; 7 (10): 903-914.